How it turned out in '05...
This morning I picked up a few of the various General Election guides the papers come out with as soon as the date of the Big Day is called. The Indie and Times have got the best maps by far if you like that sort of thing. If I was somewhat younger and much more enthusiastic about General Elections I would get some blue-tac or pins out and stick them on my wall, for me to gaze at when I had nothing better to do. Or during a period of displacement activity, when I more important/tedious matters to attend to. They would go well with any World Cup wallcharts I may have.
However, even I would draw the line at collecting Panini stickers of politicians...
When you think about it, General Elections and World Cups are very similar. They come around about every four years, and even people who only take a cursory interest, if at all, in football/politics the rest of the time express some interest in what is going on. Both occasions dominate the TV and the rest of the media, with a fair few newspapers having special pull-out sections. Moreover, despite a few shock results and occasional schadenfreude at the misfortunes of others you've never much cared for, the overall winner is never that much of a surprise.
So like some really bad TV soccer pundit droning on about his 'dark horse' tip to surprise people at South Africa 2010, I'll put my head on the proverbial chopping block and make my overall prediction for the General Election. I think it will be a 'hung' Parliament, with the Conservatives being the biggest party in terms of seats, but falling short of an overall majority by some way. Both main parties will get somewhere between 30% and 40% (like 2005). Some sort of coalition will follow. As I've posted more than once in the last few years, I think we will end up with something approaching a 'National Government'/ 'Government Of All The Talents (aka 'GOATS', though the talent aspect is somewhat hard to perceive most of the time)/'Government of National Unity'/'Grand Coalition'- take your pick! (Sean O'Grady in today's Indie raises the spectre of a 1930s-style 'National Government'.) I think it would include people from all three of the main parties, simply because there are now so few real policy differences between the leaderships of Labour, the Lib Democrats and Conservatives that they might as well go the whole hog and join together as one.
One other prediction: whatever the result is, I think the biggest cheer of Election night at the Labour HQ will be if 'Gorgeous' George Galloway does not get back into the Commons. Mind you, he hardly does himself any favours, does he?
Finally, in a way I am quite envious that Geoffrey Wheatcroft, one of my favourite writers from the 'Right', is going to be out the country while most of the General Election campaign takes place. Consequently, I will have to share something he wrote in the run-up as some sort of compensation. Whether you agree with it or not, I have a feeling that it willbe a lot more intelligent than most of the stuff which is about to envelope us all...
3 comments:
I don't think we will get a national government. It generally takes a world war for us to get one of those (so extremely unlikely). We will get probably a Tory government with either a small majority or possibly a minority government of either hue.
I would personally like to see Gorgeous George re-elected along with Salma Yaqoob in Birmingham. My prediction is a Tory win plus a win for UKIP in Buckingham and the Greens in Brighton. Hopefully the latter will really launch the Greens nationally.
JW
That Geoffrey Wheatcroft however 'volunterrism' is often quoted as a third way but the only example ever given is the RNLI. We couldn't run an economy like the RNLI. The only 3rd way between full state socialism and free market freewheelin madness is the mixed economy with regulated markets.
JW
We'll see what happens won't we?
You should really get yourself a blog JW- as we say in the blogsphere, those who can blog, those who can't comment!
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