Friday Briefs...

At this General Election Michael Caine seems to be 'doing a Sean Connery' and giving his two-penny's worth to the British electorate. The Tory Press are giving the impression that the proposed two months in a residential centre for 16 year olds is the same as the proverbial 'National Service' which is trotted out, along with hanging, as the perennial solution to the country's problems by the saloon bar bores and third-rate Richard Littlejohn impressionists who populate tabloid letter pages and radio phone-ins. People who say 'bring back National Service' tend to forget that in the 1950s there were proper jobs and lots of them for those who had served two years in the army to go into. Now we would only have people highly trained in firearms to join criminal gangs or other sections of the lumpenproletariat.

The other Conservative cunning plan at the moment is to reverse Labour's pledge to increase National Insurance Contributions and to cut public sector 'waste'. With a lot of Big Business backing the Conservatives on NIC New Labour is at sixes and sevens. Its reaction to Big Business deserting it for the Conservatives is like watching a Gangster's Moll watching Her Mister Big going back to his Wife.

However, when it comes to cutting public sector 'waste' the Conservatives seem to be making it up as they go along. A good overview can be found here and a less reverential one here. For those of you wondering what on Earth Big Business has got to moan about, this may be of interest.

Do not expect Gordon or Dave put themselves up for hard questioning in the media during the campaign, let alone go all Stuart Mclennan on us. On the subject of the Media, the Open Rights Group and the Pirate Party give their views on the passing of the Digital Economy Bill, although the ORG does provide a tad more pithy summary:

However, as the Pirate Party say, it is only a battle lost, not the war. The General Election is the same. It is not the end of British politics, thankfully, although it may feel like it more than once in the coming weeks...

Don't say you're bored already...

 Latest on the Digital Economy Bill saga here.

How it turned out in '05... 

This morning I picked up a few of  the various General Election guides the papers come out with as soon as the date of the Big Day is called. The Indie and Times have got the best maps by far if you like that sort of thing. If I was somewhat younger and much more enthusiastic about General Elections I would get some blue-tac or pins out and stick them on my wall, for me to gaze at when I had nothing better to do. Or during a period of displacement activity, when I  more important/tedious matters to attend to. They would go well with any World Cup wallcharts I may have.

 However, even I would draw the line at collecting Panini stickers of politicians...

When you think about it, General Elections and World Cups are very similar. They come around about every four years, and even people who only take a cursory interest, if at all, in football/politics the rest of the time express some interest in what is going on. Both occasions dominate the TV and the rest of the media, with a fair few newspapers having special pull-out sections. Moreover, despite a few shock results and occasional schadenfreude at the misfortunes of others you've never much cared for, the overall winner is never that much of a surprise.

So like some really bad TV soccer pundit droning on about his 'dark horse' tip to surprise people at South Africa 2010, I'll put my head on the proverbial chopping block and make my overall prediction for the General Election. I think it will be a 'hung' Parliament, with the Conservatives being the biggest party in terms of seats, but falling short of an overall majority by some way. Both main parties will get somewhere between 30% and 40% (like 2005). Some sort of coalition will follow. As I've posted more than once in the last few years, I think we will end up with something approaching a 'National Government'/ 'Government Of All The Talents (aka 'GOATS', though the talent aspect is somewhat hard to perceive most of the time)/'Government of National Unity'/'Grand Coalition'- take your pick! (Sean O'Grady in today's Indie raises the spectre of a 1930s-style 'National Government'.) I think it would include people from all three of the main parties, simply because there are now so few real policy differences between the leaderships of Labour, the Lib Democrats and Conservatives that they might as well go the whole hog and join together as one.

One other prediction: whatever the result is, I think the biggest cheer of  Election night at the Labour HQ will be if 'Gorgeous' George Galloway does not get back into the Commons. Mind you, he hardly does himself any favours, does he?

Finally, in a way I am quite envious that Geoffrey Wheatcroft, one of  my favourite writers from the 'Right',  is going to be out the country while most of the General Election campaign takes place. Consequently, I will have to share something he wrote in the run-up as some sort of compensation. Whether you agree with it or not, I have a feeling that it willbe a lot more intelligent than most of the stuff which is about to envelope us all...

The Net and Stuff

'But sales are slumping/And no one will say why/Could it be they put out/One too many lousy records?' Dead Kennedys 'MTV Get Off the Air'.

Tomorrow sees the Second Reading of the Digital Economy Bill in Parliament, which the Government would dearly love to make law before Westminster is dissolved for the General Election. It appears to me not only a bad law, but a law that should not be passed without full scrutiny. To make it law during the death throes of this Rump Parliament is to me plain wrong and undemocratic. I have written to my MP and she supports the Government. That's one more reason why I won't be voting for her in the General Election. You can try and contact your MP before the reading tomorrow, and I hope you have more luck than what I did. You may want to read what the Open Rights Group (from whom I borrowed the 'Dear Citizens' Letter above) say about the Bill and why everyone should be concerned:

Why Should I Care?

Consumers and companies (including Google, Facebook and Internet Service Providers themselves) alike are up in arms about the Bill, which proposes that an Internet connection could be cut off if there is suspicion that it is being used for the downloading of copyrighted content. This is very disturbing:

Although proof is required before disconnection, the evidence does not have to relate to you: you can be punished for the actions of a friend or even a neighbour who has used your Internet connection.

Rights holders could have the power to demand that sites they believe to contravene copyright law be blocked by ISPs. Right now, we don't know what the government will propose, as they have yet to draft their new proposal

As it is not the perpetrator that is punished, as you might expect, but the owner of the connection, and others using it, cafés and bars may have to stop providing wifi.

Regardless of what you do or don't do, you could be punished for the actions of others because of laws put in place by the Digital Economy Bill: if you have unsecured wifi in your home, you could be punished; if you use the Internet at your local coffee shop or library, you could lose access to that connection.

Justice would not be completely out of reach: you could appeal, but you would have to pay for the privilege, and you wouldn't be eligible for any legal aid. Reasons for appeal are limited, and unlike in a trial, the onus would not be on rights holders to prove your guilt: you would be responsible for proving your innocence.

This will be voted upon in the very near future by your MP, and we need to ensure that the Bill is properly debated, and that all MPs know how dangerous it is to individuals and small businesses. If we don't ensure that it is properly scrutinised, the Bill could pass and have severe effects on the freedom and rights of innocent people, educational establishments and small businesses alike.

You may also want to read this.

The provisions of  the Digital Economy Bill seem to me pretty draconian. Furthermore, there appears to be no way that the Bill will stop those who really want to dowload copyrighted material, as the French experience suggests. It just seems to be a rather late in the day attempt by the mainstream music industry, fronted by Simon Cowell, (who was only able to make Susan Boyle a worldwide star through people surreptiously downloading her performances on Britain's Got Talent and sticking them on YouTube!) to save itself from the same place Betamax videos went. This anti-piracy campaign seems to me to have strong echoes of the 1980s music industry campaign:

 

To which there is an obvious reply, popularised by Alternative Tentacles Records:

The last thing I have to say about the music industry is that it seems to justify all its actions by the need to protect its artists, particularly new and struggling ones. However, Sony does not seem to care much about one of its top artistes, namely Beyonce Knowles, does it?

Perhaps Beyonce should record with Alternative Tentacles...

Important as music is, there is other stuff going on the Net to worry about. For instance, there is the US Government war on Wikileaks, which keeps revealing stuff which is pretty embarrassing to the powers-that-be in the US.

There is also the use of the internet to fight 'The War Against Terror', or whatever phrase the Obama Adminstration is giving it at the moment. Much of it may be justifiable (I for one do not want to see London suffer another day like July 7th 2005) but everyone should acknowledge the murky side to intelligence wars.

There is also the extremely murky Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement. Glorified talking shop it may be, but at least the European Parliament has voted 636-10 against ACTA (the European Commission- surprise surprise- supports ACTA), 'arguing that it flouts agreed EU laws on counterfeiting and piracy online. MEPs will go to the Court of Justice if the EU does not reject the leaked proposals which include draconian powers to censor the internet and disconnect net connections.'  The 10 MEPs to vote for ACTA were all UKIP ones, just for the record.

Finally, back to Blighty, where good old snail mail may soon be intercepted by tax inspectors. I balk at Henry Porter's use of the phrase 'Stasi' to describe this move. Like David Mitchell, I try hard not to compare anything happening in the West these days to what happened in Nazi Germany and the former Eastern Bloc. However, giving these proposed powers to the HMRC, which I doubt will be a major issue in the coming General Election campaign, should be something people are very much aware of.

Anyway, I will leave it there. I will try start blogging about the General Election campaign tomorrow (if it is called tomorrow) and will at least try to update you on the progress or not (touch wood) of the Digital Economy Bill.